Three GOP polls show Lombardo with sizable lead in Nevada governor’s race

They buck a trend in already-released surveys that showed a neck-and-neck race for governor.

By Eric Neugeboren
The Nevada Independent

A trio of GOP-commissioned polls conducted this summer show Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) with sizable leads over Attorney General Aaron Ford (D) in the race for governor.

The surveys buck a trend in already-released surveys — including one commissioned by Democrats — that showed a neck-and-neck race for governor. The three polls show Lombardo ahead of Ford by 9, 12 and 7 percentage points.

“The trend is unmistakable,” reads a memo by the Better Nevada PAC, an arm of Lombardo’s political apparatus that has already spent or reserved $20 million in ad space this cycle. “Governor Lombardo enters the general election with a strong and stable lead.”

The memo, obtained by The Nevada Independent, notes that this significant fundraising buy came before an increase in media ad rates, which the PAC says makes “every Democratic dollar less efficient going forward.” Democrats have only spent or reserved $161,000 in ads supporting Ford, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact.

The three surveys come from Republican-affiliated polling firms, including the Tarrance Group, which has done significant polling of Nevada. With six weeks to go before the 2024 general election, it found Vice President Kamala Harris winning the state by 3 points and Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) up by 7. Harris ultimately lost the state by 3 points and Rosen won by less than 2 points.

The three polls were conducted from late June through late July. The first poll found Lombardo up by 9, followed by the ones finding him ahead by 12 and 7. 

The poll showing Lombardo up 12 did not have a margin of error because the PAC said it acted differently from a regular poll, instead scoring every responder’s likelihood of voting for or against a candidate. In the other two polls, one was outside the margin of error and the other was within.

Outside surveys of the governor’s race have been few and far between so far this cycle. One poll by Wedgewood Polls — a firm with little polling history — found Lombardo up 3 points in mid-June. The only other outside survey this calendar year found Lombardo up by 1 point over Ford in March.

A Democrat-commissioned poll from last month found the race tied. 

Updated on 8/5/26 at 10:30 a.m. to note in the story’s excerpt that one of the results was outside of the margin of error. 

The Nevada Independent is a 501(c)3 nonprofit news organization. We are committed to transparency and disclose all our donors. The following people or entities mentioned in this article are financial supporters of our work:

• Committee to Elect Aaron Ford – $3,023
• Joe Lombardo – $2,685